The Trump Paranoia

The political pundits predict that USA will never perform its obligations of a true friend towards India.
The Trump Paranoia
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President-elect Donald Trump won his race to the White House by defeating his arch rival, Democratic opposition leader Hillary Clinton, recently in the shell-shocked US elections to the utter surprise of pollsters. Trump has for obvious reasons been in the news not for good reasons but for his maverick attitude during his electioneering which was marked by un-parliamentary flavour.          

His victory has come about due to economic reasons and racial considerations. The angry white men and blue collar industrial workers were dejected and annoyed at the collapse of manufacturing factories in the rust belt areas. They were paranoid of the foreigners for having allegedly taken away their jobs. They were virtually up in arms against the existing set up and therefore, wanted a change where their race and economic well-being were protected. Trump shrewdly played to their sentiments by generating an ultra-nationalist campaign. Trump's slogan "Make America Great Again" and "peace through strength" struck the chord of the beleaguered Americans. Donald promised to secure employment and racial securities for the Americans. This eventually brought about white-lash in the elections to pave way for his Presidency.

Trump's success, though rejoiced by his jubilant electorate and a few countries, triggered a paranoia among many liberal nations and communities. Considering him belligerent and jingoistic, they dismissed his success with contempt. India, too, is afflicted with 'Trump Paranoia' for his extreme right-wing views. Despite the fact that Trump's statements possessed the India-friendly gestures, yet India should not rely too much on Trump who, being an unpredictable personality, can overturn the tables to the utter surprise of India at any point of time. India has a few issues where it would like Trump's support or intervention. 

First, India eagerly intends to internationally isolate Pakistan and has been intensively pursuing the agenda at various international forums and occasions but to no avail. As long as China, an all-weather friend of Pakistan, exists India will not succeed in such efforts. The live examples being the outcome of the recently held BRICS meet in Goa.  Further, recently Pakistan, China and Russia pledged to jointly fight against the ISIS as their enemy.  They also willy-nilly acknowledged to support the 'Good Taliban' to the enchantment of Pakistan and the dismay of India. This is indirectly a rebuff to India. Trump had earlier criticised Pakistan and openly sought the cooperation of India in destabilising the nuclear assets of Pakistan during his election campaign, yet his lavish praises for Pakistan and her people calling them "fantastic" in a telephonic conversation with Nawaz Sharif is indeed a big turnaround. Trump is well aware that he will require the cooperation of Pakistan in the fight against ISIS. India should draw a cue from this diplomacy and should not expect any help from him on this issue.

Second, India wants Azhar Masood to be branded as an international terrorist for obvious reasons. India's strenuous efforts at the international level in this behalf did not bear any fruit due to China's intervention. Trump will also not displease Pakistan for the afore-stated reasons.  He will, therefore, not oblige India on Masood Azhar's issue as well.

Third, India has been aggressively pursuing to seek membership of NSG but failed due to Chinese opposition. China will continue to veto this issue until Pakistan too is made the member of the group. India's effort to rope in Trump on this issue will be non-productive.         

Fourth, the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the eye-sore of India. India's opposition to the CPEC at the international level did not get any desired result. In fact much to the chagrin of India, China and Pakistan roped in Russia, Iran and Central Asian nations, particularly Turkmenistan to join the CPEC. Although US may not join the Chinese 'One Belt One Road' project, yet it will not help India to disrupt or dismantle the CPEC to the annoyance of the favouring countries in view of the security risk involved.   

Fifth, India would like USA's present trade policy to continue, but Trump's slogan 'Make America Great Again', policy to review the H1B-visa system and preventing the transfer of jobs overseas through outsourcing will not only adversely impact the Indian IT industry but also shatter Narender Modi's dream project 'Make in India'.

The political pundits predict that USA will never perform its obligations of a true friend towards India. It should not forget that US had been trying to weaken India's economy for a long time as it was indigestible for her to believe that Indian economy could remain unaffected in the teeth of down turn world. Trump, on the other hand, will try to use India to prevent its arch rival China's influence in the South China Sea to perpetuate its political and economic hegemony in Asia. India, as a matured country, should guard against such overtures of the US to unnecessarily take such miss-steps which are without gains but full of security risks. 

Therefore, both India and Pakistan should understand that not Trump but trust between the two alone can lead to the resolution of their issues.

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