The assembly election results in five states on December 3 can set the tone for the coming Lok Sabha (parliamentary) polls in the country. Victory in these assembly elections is very important particularly for the BJP and the Congress to keep the momentum going in their favour. Any unfavourable results can place the parties in an uncomfortable position.
Usually, the Lok Sabha and assembly polls are contested differently and on different issues. But, the assembly elections in the five states held only four months before the parliament polls, can set a narrative for the coming crucial parliamentary election. The winning parties can cash in on their victory and corner the rival parties for their defeat. In view of the high importance of these assembly polls, the major political parties besides other parties and their leaders vigorously campaigned since October 9 when the election schedule was announced. This despite the fact that the attention of vast majority of cricket fans was also towards the world cup held in India and which concluded recently.
Four states, Mizoram, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan went to polls on different days in November. Polling in the fifth state, Telangana, will be held on November 30. And on December 3, the picture will be clear as the result will be declared. The results will show which party has succeeded in its efforts to get the public support and to what extent and where. And then the parties would move towards the biggest electoral battle , the Lok Sabha polls.
The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A) of opposition parties and led by Congress will have to rethink and re-devise their strategy if they really want to go into parliament polls with a united face against BJP. The assembly polls in five states exposed the chinks within the alliance. Differences surfaced openly between Congress and former UP chief minister Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party over seat sharing in Madhya Pradesh. The parties went to the extent of saying that they will separately contest on all the Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh (UP), having the largest number of parliamentary constituencies among all the states and union territories.
The seat sharing arrangement issue during Lok Sabha polls among the I.N.D.I.A allies can lead to more trouble for the concerned parties. No headway could be made on this key issue till now even as a number of leaders were pressing for such an arrangement in advance. Seat sharing in elections becomes complex as some parties in any electoral alliance sometimes want more share than what is due. Every party wants to contest on more seats to have more bargaining power in government formation or have more representation in assembly or parliament. The I.N.D.I.A allies will face difficulties if they are unable to resolve the seat sharing arrangement. This can dent their image and minimise their chances of winning more seats. Division of votes in crucial constituencies will not be in their interests.
In Jammu and Kashmir also though there are only five Lok Sabha seats, the parties who are part of I.N.D.I.A want to contest on their own. It appears that there will not be an alliance at least between National Conference (NC) and the PDP. The two parties would like to contest separately on Srinagar, Baramulla and newly re-designed seat of Anantnag and Poonch. However, NC may support Congress for the two seats- Jammu and Udhampur in return for support in Srinagar, Baramulla and Anantnag – Poonch constituencies . For the lone Ladakh parliamentary seat, the NC and Congress are expected to field a joint candidate against BJP.
Like the senior leaders of others political parties, the former chief minister and NC vice president Omar Abdullah continues to be active on the political front. Amid fog and cold, he can be seen addressing party rallies in different parts of Kashmir to get support of people for the Lok Sabha polls. While he is criticising the administration and the BJP on various issues, he has started targeting PDP ” for not accepting the unconditional support of NC after 2014 assembly polls to keep BJP away from power.” Omar said that if people had voted NC to power in 2014, the scenario would not have been what is it today. He added that in presence of a strong NC, the developments like that of 2019 would not have been possible. Rather than reacting strongly to Omar’s criticism, PDP president Mehbooba Mufti preferred to respond guardedly.
Addressing party rallies she said that some parties in 2014 wanted to make her father and PDP founder Mufti Mohammad Sayeed chief minister. ” But Mufti sahab wanted to join hands with the central government with the aim to bring the same era of peace, development, and prosperity which was witnessed during the rule of Atal Bihari Vajpayee sahab and Dr Manmohan Singh Sahab. Series of major confidence building measures and initiatives had helped providing a new postive atmosphere in the state, country and outside during the time of Vajpayee sahab and Dr Manmohan Singh Sahab. Even in 2014, Mufti sahab ensured that Article 370 is not touched during the PDP and BJP coalition government and infact a commitment in this regard was made by the BJP with PDP in writing. But after the fall of our government things changed,” she said. It is to be seen till how long Mehbooba will continue with this guarded approach towards the criticism and when exactly her party would hit back at NC.
The NC vice president while addressing a rally in Bandipora announced that this time the sitting MP, Mohammad Akbar Lone, will not be his party’s candidate for Baramulla Lok Sabha constituency due to his ill- health. ” Infact our party and leadership want to field Mohammad Akbar Lone this time also, but his health does not permit us to do so. The NC leadership will decide about the new candidate at an appropriate time,” he said.
A former MP from Baramulla constituency and ex-deputy chief minister Muzaffar Hussain Beig recently paid a visit to Muftis’ residence to enquire about the health of Mehbooba’s mother. She had undergone a knee surgery. Beig was accompanied by his family members. While it was said that the visit had nothing to do with politics, but it did create some interest among the political circles here. There were reports that some leaders from north Kashmir who had quit PDP in the past, would rejoin it. Later some reports said some of them would join NC. But nothing of that sort happened till now. However, all major parties are busy with their preparations for the parliament polls likely to be held in April- May next year.