India emerges as a key player, in a rapidly evolving landscape of global security, spearheading the charge in the ongoing arms race. As revealed by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) report, Asia’s strategic importance has amplified, with India leading the pack in arms imports.
This paradigm shift underscores the region’s role in shaping international security dynamics and defence strategy. This era, marked by ongoing conflicts, fluctuating trends, and pivotal shifts in supplier-consumer dynamics, reflects broader geopolitical movements and new strategic realignments.
As nations navigate through an ongoing complex matrix of security challenges, regional tensions, and evolving military technologies, the interplay between rising powers, traditional defence giants, and regional security has not only reshaped the arms trade but also signalled shifts in the tectonic plates of global politics and world order.
India emerged as the leading importer, marking a significant trend with a 4.7% increase in its arms imports between 2014-2019 and 2019–23. This period highlighted a pivotal shift as Russia, India’s longstanding primary supplier contributing 36% of its imports, delivered less than half of India’s arms for the first time since the early 1960s.
Meanwhile, Pakistan, ascending to the fifth largest arms importer globally, saw a surge in its arms imports by 43%. China played a critical role in solidifying its position as Pakistan’s principal arms supplier by providing 82% of its imports.
Asia and Oceania received the highest portion of global arms transfers from 2019 to 2023, accounting for 37% of the total, although this figure marks a slight decline from 41% in the previous five-year period.
The United States emerged as the primary arms provider to Asia and Oceania for the first time in a quarter of a century, supplying 34% of the region’s arms imports. This development overshadowed Russia’s 19% and China’s 13% contributions.
Arms acquisitions by Japan and South Korea, balancing with China’ also saw an increase, by 155% and 6.5%, respectively, mostly acquired from the US. In contrast, China reduced its own arms imports by 44%, largely by replacing foreign arms, primarily from Russia, with domestically produced equipment.
West Asia or the Middle East
In the period from 2019 to 2023, West Asia accounted for 30% of global arms transfers. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt were among the world’s top 10 arms importers during this time.
Saudi Arabia stood as the second-largest global arms importer, claiming 8.4% of the worldwide arms imports. Despite a 28% reduction in arms imports compared to the previous period (2014-2018). Qatar saw an increase in its arms acquisitions, with a nearly fourfold rise (396%) between 2014–18 and 2019–23, positioning it as the third-largest arms importer globally.
The bulk of the arms supplied to West Asian or Middle Eastern countries originated from the United States, which accounted for 52% of the imports. European countries also played a role, with France providing 12%, Italy 10%, and Germany 7.1% of the arms imported into the region.
Zain Hussain, a SIPRI researcher, observed that despite a general decline in arms imports to the Middle East, several states continue to import high volumes of arms, spurred by ongoing regional conflicts and tensions. Over the past decade, major arms imports have been actively utilised in regional conflicts, including those in Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen. Gulf states have been importing substantial amounts of arms for use against the Houthis in Yemen and to mitigate Iranian influence in the region.
Europe
European nations saw a 94% surge in arms imports between 2014–18 and 2019–23. Ukraine stood out as the leading arms importer in Europe and the fourth largest globally, benefiting from military aid provided by at least 30 countries starting from February 2022.
The United States was the principal supplier, furnishing 55% of the arms imported by European countries during this period, a significant rise from its 35% share in the previous period. Germany and France followed as the next largest suppliers, contributing 6.4% and 4.6% to the region’s arms imports.
Pieter Wezeman, a Senior Researcher at the SIPRI Arms Transfers Programme, highlighted that Europe’s arms imports are expected to remain elevated, driven by orders for nearly 800 combat aircraft and helicopters. The demand for air defence systems in Europe has increased over the past two years, propelled by Russia’s missile attacks against Ukraine.
Over half of the arms imported by European nations during this period came from the USA, a trend maintaining trans-Atlantic relations. Dan Smith, the Director of SIPRI, remarked on the potential for shifts in European arms procurement policies in response to changes in trans-Atlantic relations.
The USA’s role as a global arms supplier expanded, with its exports increasing by 17% and its share of global arms exports growing from 34% to 42%. France’s arms exports surged by 47%, overtaking Russia to become the second-largest arms exporter. France’s success was particularly marked in the sale of combat aircraft to countries outside Europe, including significant deals with India, Qatar, and Egypt.
Russian arms exports, on the other hand, dropped by 53% between 2014–18 and 2019–23, with a reduction in the number of recipient countries over this period.
Other top arms exporters after the USA, France, and Russia showed mixed trends, with Italy and South Korea experiencing increases in their exports, while China, Germany, the United Kingdom, Spain, and Israel saw declines.
During the period from 2014 to 2023, the landscape of global arms imports saw several significant shifts, with Africa experiencing the changes. Arms imports by African nations fell by 52%, primarily due to reductions in acquisitions by two North African countries: Algeria saw a steep decline of 77% in its arms imports, while Morocco’s imports fell by 46%.
In sub-Saharan Africa, the trend was slightly less pronounced, with a decrease of 9% in arms imports. China emerged as the leading supplier to the region, accounting for 19% of arms deliveries and surpassing Russia as the main source of major arms.
Egypt stood out as the seventh-largest arms importer globally from 2019 to 2023, enhancing its military capabilities with the addition of over 20 combat aircraft and 10 major warships, aiming to expand its military reach. Australia also made headlines as the world’s eighth-largest arms importer, despite a 21% reduction in its arms imports. In 2023, Australia agreed with the United Kingdom and the United States to acquire at least six nuclear-powered submarines, marking a pivotal moment in its defence procurement strategy.
Israel’s arms imports during this period were predominantly sourced from the United States and Germany, which supplied 69% and 30% of its imports. The focus on combat aircraft as a key component of long-range strike capabilities was evident, though there was a growing interest in long-range missiles. Six countries placed orders or preselected missiles with a range of over 1,000 kilometres, all procured from the United States, signalling a shift in strategic preferences.
In the Americas, there was a 7.2% decrease in arms imports, with the United States leading as the region’s largest importer, followed by Brazil and Canada again showcasing a shift.
This evolving narrative of arms imports and purchases is more than a mere reflection of military strategies; it is a litmus test for the state of international relations and peace. The strategic decisions made by countries in arming themselves echo their anticipation of future threats, their desire for technological superiority, and their pursuit of geopolitical influence.
However, the repercussions of these decisions extend beyond the immediate sphere of military engagement. They touch upon the very fabric of civilization, influencing global peace, security dynamics, and the prospects for a world where diplomacy outweighs conflict.
The shifts in the global arms imports and purchases landscape summarise not only the changing face of military strategy and alliances but also underline the challenges and responsibilities that come with such power.
As civilization stands at the crossroads of technological advancement and ethical considerations, more so with AI-advanced weaponry, the patterns of arms trade serve as a reminder of the need for a balanced approach towards security, one that raises immediate concerns of peace, sustainability, climate change and stability.
Author is National Editor, Greater Kashmir.