Today, April 7, exactly six months have passed since the onset of the Israel-Gaza Conflict that began on October 7. Initially, there was optimism as negotiations mediated by the US, Qatar, and Egypt, and the release of some of the hostages in exchange with jailed Palestinians appeared to be inching towards a resolution.
Israel after months of apparently ignoring Washington’s concerns about the humanitarian situation in Gaza, and now with the increase of threat of conflict expansion, Israel’s Prime Minister was forced to make first concessions or face the threat of a shift in the US policy towards his country.
Netanyahu was warned by Biden last week that US support for the Gaza offensive could change if Israel did not step up the delivery of aid and took additional measures to protect civilians and aid workers.
Netanyahu faces increased pressure from all sides. Internationally, calls for a ceasefire are getting louder. Calls to stop giving arms to Israel are equally getting louder. Domestically, families of the hostages who remain in Gaza accuse him of not prioritising their release.
However, increased attacks on civilians and their properties in Gaza, a series of external attacks, particularly the recent assault on the Iranian consulate in Damascus and the killing of seven foreign aid workers in Gaza, have pushed West Asia perilously close to the brink of an expanded conflict.
It highlights the volatile nature of the region’s geopolitical landscape. This latest incident, particularly the assault on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1st, represents a dangerous escalation since the onset of the Gaza-Israel conflict half a year ago as the diplomatic enclaves according to international law are not the target of any situation. The attack has led to condemnation and concern by the majority of countries and international organisations. India has equally shown concern about the attack on an Iranian Consulate.
What happened at the Damascus Consulate?
In an alleged targeted strike by Israeli warplanes on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), was killed along with six others, including another top Iranian general.
Zahedi, a prominent figure within the IRGC’s elite Quds Force, had played a significant role in advancing Iran’s influence across the region since at least 2008. He led operations in Syria and Lebanon, where Iran’s political, religious, and military presence has deepened over the years.
As one of the top figures facilitating Iran’s support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Zahedi was instrumental in Iran’s backing of the Syrian government throughout the decade-long conflict, which has left Syria in a state of devastation and division.
Zahedi’s role as a representative of Iranian interests in the region had long drawn the attention of Israeli intelligence. He was often named in Israeli media as one of the top targets sought by Israel, alongside other high-ranking IRGC-Quds Force officials. The strike also killed Zahedi’s deputy, Brigadier General Mohamad Hadi Haji Rahimi, further underscoring the gravity of the attack and its implications for Iran’s operations in the region.
Zahedi’s assassination marks the highest-ranking Iranian military commander to be killed since the death of Major General Qassem Soleimani in a US drone strike in Iraq in January 2020. Soleimani, another key architect of Iran’s regional strategy, had been deeply involved in supporting various armed and political groups across the Middle East in opposition to US and Israeli interests.
This latest airstrike is part of a series of escalating Israeli attacks targeting Iranian commanders in Syria, with another senior commander, Sayyed Razi Mousavi, killed in a strike late last December. While previous attacks have not elicited significant retaliatory responses, this latest incident has the potential to alter the status quo.
Iran and its regional allies have been actively engaged in confrontations with Israel, in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. These actions have not only served to bolster their regional influence but have also managed to avoid spiralling into full-blown conflict, much to the relief of international stakeholders such as the United States.
However, the recent vow of revenge from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following the Israeli air raid in Syria, coupled with President Ebrahim Raisi’s condemnation of the attack, suggests that tensions are reaching a critical juncture.
Hezbollah’s warning that the attack on the Iranian consulate will not go unanswered further complicates the landscape, raising concerns about the potential for further escalation and widening hostilities across the region.
In response to these developments, the UN Security Council has convened a special session, reflecting the gravity of the situation. Calls for restraint from the EU and condemnation from China underscore the international community’s apprehension about the escalating tensions.
In a Security Council meeting addressing threats to international peace and security, Khaled Khiari, Assistant Secretary-General for Middle East, Asia, and the Pacific, highlighted the urgent need to prevent further escalation in the Middle East following a deadly airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria.
Khiari emphasized the importance of restraint and called upon the Council to actively engage all concerned parties to avoid worsening tensions that undermine regional peace and security. UN Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the attack, reaffirming the inviolability of diplomatic premises and personnel under international law.
Mr Khiari emphasized the Secretary-General’s plea for caution, warning, “Any misjudgement could ignite broader conflict in an already unstable region, resulting in catastrophic consequences for civilians who are already enduring unprecedented suffering in Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian Territory, and the wider Middle East.”
An escalation in the frequency and severity of attacks on Iran-linked targets in Syria, often attributed to Israel, has been noted, particularly since the commencement of the ongoing conflict in Gaza on October 7th,” stated Mr Khiari. “Numerous reports indicate over a dozen such attacks since the start of this year alone.”
“While Israel has not consistently claimed responsibility for these incidents, its officials have openly acknowledged military operations in Syria, hinting at future actions,” he continued, emphasizing the necessity for sustained engagement by the Security Council.
Amid ongoing violence in Syria, exacerbated by the presence of six foreign armies, the UN Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, continues to update the Council on efforts to address the conflict, which has endured for 13 years, further complicating prospects for peace in the region.
Anticipated Outcome
Counterattacks conducted by Iran’s proxies would increase. However, direct military conflict between Iran and Israel is unlikely, Iran may use further its influence in supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq, and Houthi forces in Yemen to attack Israel. The conflict between Israel and Iran is likely to develop in parallel with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, further complicating the regional situation.
However, the rhetoric emanating from Iranian officials suggests that a strong response may be imminent, potentially setting the stage for further escalation and heightening the risk of a full-blown regional conflict.
Against this backdrop, the situation in West Asia remains fluid and unpredictable, with the potential for a significant escalation in hostilities looming large. Efforts to de-escalate tensions and find a diplomatic resolution are urgently needed to prevent the situation from spiralling out of control and plunging the region into chaos.
Author is National Editor, Greater Kashmir.