Being conducted in an entirely new political atmosphere, the 2024 Lok Sabha poll in Jammu and Kashmir is different from all such electoral exercises of the past. The election is being held for the first time after the abrogation of Article 370.
The delimitation exercise has also changed the boundaries of the constituencies. The change in boundaries has thrown new challenges for some of the parties.
The ongoing Lok Sabha election is also vital for the survival of several major and new political parties. The claims being made by the parties regarding their popularity will be tested in the electoral fray. Even as the Lok Sabha and Assembly Polls are different but the results of this parliamentary election can impact the assembly polls to be held later this year.
Participation of more parties is expected to increase the poll percentage further this time. The higher the poll percentage the more excitement is bound to happen. Division of votes can also give surprising results. Even as there are only five seats in J&K but the whole election process and the results will be keenly watched at the national level. So every party will try to give its best.
The winning parties will go into the assembly polls later with extra confidence. This can help them in getting more public support. Almost every major or new contesting party will utilise all its resources to emerge victorious in the tough battle particularly in the three seats in Kashmir.
Getting a voice in the parliament is highly important for the political parties here. Having representation in national level politics has become equally important for the J&K parties for their survival.
Not only the victory but vote share in this election can be an indicator for the political parties regarding their preparations for assembly polls. So the parties have to win and get a good vote share as well. Good vote share can boost their confidence. Winning with huge margin the two Jammu seats is important for BJP.
If the party is able to do so and gets more votes than others in all the assembly segments of two parliamentary constituencies then its plan to form the next government in Jammu and Kashmir after assembly polls will get further strengthened.
BJP’s good performance in the Anantnag – Rajouri- Poonch constituency can brighten its chances further. After the assembly polls later it will be seen which party in Kashmir helps the BJP in the government formation. But right now the focus is on the ongoing parliamentary polls.
In 2019 parliamentary polls, National Conference (NC) had bagged all the three seats in Kashmir valley and BJP two of Jammu and one in Ladakh. The two parties say that they are confident of repeating their performance in this election also. Infact the BJP is eyeing the re-designed Anantnag- Rajouri-Poonch seat now. Likewise, Congress is intending to take advantage of the emerging demands being made in Ladakh union territory.
The presence of two new parties Apni Party headed by Syed Mohammad Altaf Bukhari and Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) led by Ghulam Nabi Azad is also going to make some difference in the election. Bukhari and his team has been very active on the political front for last several years.
Massive outreach has been done by the party leaders across Jammu and Kashmir. Most Apni Party leaders are known to have influence in their respective areas. To what extent they are going to cash on it will be known in coming time. Apni Party is yet to announce its party candidates. Some time back it had stated to contest all the five seats in J&K. But now the party is exploring to stitch an electoral alliance with like minded parties.
Apni Party has authorised its President to take a decision on it. Senior Apni Party leader Rafi Ahmad Mir told media that the process for forming the alliance is about to begin . Asked about the reports doing rounds that Apni Party and Azad’s DPAP are set to form the electoral alliance, Mir said the process is yet to start and ” we will see with whom we can join hands.”
Till now DPAP has announced only one candidate – G M Sarooori. He will contest from Udhampur – Doda constituency.
Some months back there were reports of Apni Party going for an alliance with People’s Conference. People’s Conference has stated that its President Sajad Gani Lone will himself contest from Baramulla- Kupwara constituency.
NC, PDP and Congress have not yet announced their candidates. NC Vice President Omar Abdullah said that his party will soon announce the candidates, who will start their work. The party has already decided to contest the three seats Srinagar, Baramulla and Anantnag- Rajouri-Poonch seats. This was again confirmed by NC President Dr Farooq Abdullah while talking to media persons on Tuesday.
He said that since his party had won the three seats in 2019 so it will contest there again and win. He ruled out any problem in I.N.D.I.A bloc or PAGD due to NC’s decision.
PDP also has not yet made the announcement regarding its candidates. If reports are to be believed the party President Mehbooba Mufti may contest from Anantnag- Rajouri-Poonch seat.
So far as the BJP is concerned it too has to make names of the candidates for Srinagar, Baramulla and Anantnag-Rajouri-Poonch seats public. Reports suggest that J&K BJP President Ravinder Raina may be fielded in Anantnag-Rajouri-Poonch constituency.
The party has already announced that union minister Dr Jitendra Singh and sitting MP Jugal Kishore will be its candidates for Udhampur and Jammu constituencies respectively.
Author is senior editor, Greater Kashmir