The PM Narendra Modi, while replying to the debate on motion of thanks on the President’s Address to the Parliament, virtually kick-started the election campaign for the 2024 general elections.
He made his stand clear that he and his party would be making a comeback to the Lok Sabha for a consecutive third term with an eye upon 400 seats for the NDA. He also remarked that the BJP would target for 370 seats in the next Lok Sabha in an apparent reference to the abrogation of Article 370.
He also minced no words in saying that the opposition, especially Congress, may get further shrunken this time keeping in view their present policy and position. In view of the points raised during his speech by the PM, it is of great interest to analyse the election scenario particularly in regard to the numbers and the electoral arithmetic at a national level.
However, to start with, it needs to be understood that PM Modi keeps on attacking Congress, its past leaders and the Nehruvian model of politics and governance. He did so this time as well in his speech in the parliament. In addition to this, he is also very critical of the dynasty politics which was initially unleashed by the Congress and later by the regional political parties throughout the length and breadth of the country.
He also made it clear that when he was talking about dynasty politics and governance, he meant to include all the concerned in it and not only Congress and the political parties in opposition. It makes clear the point that the BJP won’t encourage alliances with such regional groups that go by the dynastic political route, and will do so only as a compulsion of the last resort.
The electoral analysts, political pundits, thinkers and media experts have dwelt upon the subject of electoral arithmetics of 2024 general elections in a big way for the last six months. The results of the five state elections in December 2023 and the Ram Mandir wave in the country have compelled everyone to rethink about the results of the ensuing elections.
Some of these media experts have already concluded their analysis by saying that for the BJP, ‘it is a deal done’. They have gone to the extent to advise the opposition to think in terms of controlling the damage that is going to come their way in the heavily changed atmosphere in the country.
There is no doubt in the fact that the BJP-NDA has shown extra-ordinary and exemplary results for the last ten years under the leadership of PM Modi. They have covered all the following four factors with complete finesse and satisfaction of the nation.
These are: Intent, Implementation, Marketing & Conversion into votes. When the government expresses its intent to do a particular thing, it is meticulously followed by its implementation on the ground. Then at an appropriate time, its marketing is done so that it creates an impact on the minds of the people. At the time of the elections, the impact on the minds of the people is converted into votes in favour of the BJP-NDA through a very well-knit organisational planning and mechanism.
It shouldn’t be a surprise for those who know the facts that the BJP-NDA doesn’t depend on Modi-magic alone. Besides this, the Hindutva factor has become an essential part of the political discussion and discourse in the country.
This is also a fact that the BJP-NDA is the sole claimant of this ideology that has created a niche everywhere over the last three to four decades. Then the patriotic narrative, based upon the cultural nationalism with a clear support globally, has its own large constituency to work in favour of the BJP.
The physical, financial and organisational strength of the BJP-NDA is not only smart and durable but is also unmatched and unparalleled as on date. Unless all these factors aren’t neutralized by the Congress and the other opposition parties, there is no likelihood of the opposition to push their case forward when pitted against the BJP.
India is a large country with vast geographical regions and communities spread over its whole area. BJP has reached in all the regions, states, towns and villages of India during the last ten years. It has in essence replaced the Congress in half of the landscape of India and in the rest of the area it has made its presence felt and got counted.
Though the BJP was always strong in the north and the west of India, it has also made a strong base in key eastern and southern states as well. There is but no doubt that the BJP needs to do a big homework so far as its advances in the southern states are concerned.
There are a number of states where Congress is pitted directly against BJP with a meagre influence of the other parties therein. These states are HP, Haryana, Uttarakhand, MP, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Goa, Assam and Karnataka. Then there are those states where BJP will be facing a triangular contest but will be having a clear-cut edge as well.
These states are UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Telangana, Delhi and J&K. In states like Orissa, West Bengal and North-Eastern states, BJP-NDA has been getting a formidable number of seats for the last two terms and there hasn’t been any negative change therein against the NDA. All these states constitute around 443 seats in the Lok Sabha. Out of these 443 seats, the BJP-NDA is already having 350 seats while the major opposition party, the Congress is having around 40 seats. The rest of the seats are with the regional political parties.
The rest of the states like Kerala, TN, Andhra Pradesh, Puducherry and Punjab comprise the other around 100 seats of the 543 seats of the Lok Sabha. It is here where both the BJP and the Congress would like to make a headway this time. While Congress is already in an alliance with the other parties in these states, BJP will be seriously going for such an arrangement in all these states with an eye upon a good chunk of seats therefrom. Out of these 100 odd seats, BJP is not having even five seats as on date while the Congress is having around 15 seats at present. It is being seen that the BJP this time is going for a very serious campaign in all these 100 seats and PM Modi, Amit Shah and J.P.Nadda have already made their intentions clear in this regard.
Keeping in view that the main promises made by the BJP in its manifesto have been realised during the last five years including the abrogation of Article 370, building of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya and nullification of Triple Talaq, they are perceived as a major achievement of the BJP government. And the Uniform Civil Code is already making the rounds.
The implementation of large scale public welfare measures have also made a great impact on the ground to which the opposition has absolutely no answer. The successful organisation of G20 programmes, Chandrayaan success story, Covid19 combat efforts, policy of ‘talks & terror won’t go together’, building and enhancing relationship with the rest of the world, strengthening the defence preparedness of the country and taking the responsibility of the global south as its leader are having their own deep impact on the minds of the people.
There is no doubt in the fact that the Ram Mandir consecration programme will have its positive influence on the psyche of the people during the ensuing election at a pan India level. There are two more such programmes to be attended by PM Modi. Both the programmes are slated to be held in February this year.
One is scheduled to be held in Abu Dhabi in UAE by BAPS on 14th February and the second will be held in Sambal, UP on 19th February 2024. While in Abu Dhabi, a grand Hindu temple will be inaugurated by Modi, the foundation stone laying ceremony for the Kalki-Avtaar temple in Sambhal will be presided over by him. Honestly, these eye-catching events won’t also escape the view and vision of the voters of the general elections.
From the foregoing, it is clear that the opposition and particularly the Congress has an uphill task ahead. The irony is that one of the leading figures of the opposition who formed the Indi-alliance is busy with his ‘Nyay-Yatra’ instead of thinking, planning and strategizing things in view of the general elections.
PM Modi sarcastically said in his address that keeping in view the situation, a number of opposition MPs think of shifting to the ‘viewer’s gallery’ of the parliament in future course of time. His sarcasm seems to come true. Indi-Alliance stands already broken before it could actually fight in the battle-ground. There seems to be no hope for it when its own founding fathers have already parted ways.
NDA-BJP under the leadership of Narendra Modi have done its homework very well and are focussed only at adding further value to their already existing number. Many experts are of the opinion that the counting for them will start from 300. Taking into view the situation of the ground realities as they exist on date, achieving the target of 400 may look extremely difficult but it is not also impossible. And then politics is the game of possibilities and impossibilities. One thing, however, looks sure, and that is the return of the Modi led NDA-BJP dispensation for its third term….!
(The author is a senior BJP and KP leader, human rights defender, author and columnist)