It has been growing for some time, but now US is directly accusing the Russians of supporting and arming Afghan Taliban. Last Friday, Gen John Nicholson, the head of US forces in Afghanistan, in a BBC interview called it, “destabilising activity by the Russians”, alleging that Russian weapons were smuggled across the Tajik border to the Taliban. With that the wheel has turned full circle. As Russia, in its USSR garb entered Afghanistan in 1979, US branded it the evil power, an aggressor, and organized a ‘Jihad’ against godless communists. US did all it could to support the Muslim groups world-over engaged in fighting the aggressor. USSR after a bitter war in eighties beat a hasty retreat. It led to disintegration of the monolithic state extending from Central Asian dominions to the vassal states of East Europe. The world was left with one super-power, Americans dominated the globe. USSR competing USA was done and dusted away in the garbage bin of history.
Russians took more or less two decades to recover and regain breath. Badly torn economy had to be restored to a semblance of fiscal health. Russia however in a state of turmoil held on to its nuclear arsenal, second only to USA, with predominance in some sectors of nuclear deterrence. China was coming up fast as an economic power with a military muscle, while Russians were recovering. The evidence of re-assertion of Russian power started in neighbourhood. The world was left in no doubt that Crimea matters to Russia, as Ukraine was left dithering. By this time Russians had started backing the Bashr Al-Assad regime in Syria, shaken by rebels supported by US backed Gulf States. The Russians ensured Chinese support, with Iranians already committed to support Bashr Al-Assad to the hilt. West Asia had seen a new phenomenon—the rise of extremist ISIS, a bunch of ragtag elements growing fast out of nowhere. Russians have had a hand in combatting IS (Daesh) in West Asia. What was initially a West Asian phenomenon is showing signs of spreading to Afghanistan in the name of Islamic state of Khorasan—a historical entity embracing parts of Iran, Afghanistan and Indo-Pak subcontinent.
Russian have taken a serious view of spread of IS (Daesh) so close to their borders. It is generally believed that Daesh has been constituted partly from some disgruntled elements of Af-Taliban. The spread of Daesh has compelled Russians to strategize their Afghan policy. Af-Taliban is no more taken to be an extremist force, but a nationalistic resistance movement. Russians seem to be convinced that effective way of checking the growth of Daesh is to support Af-Taliban. However Americans think otherwise. Gen Nicholson was quoted by the BBC as saying that, “We see a narrative that’s being used that grossly exaggerates the number of Isis [Islamic State group] fighters here.” He added, “This narrative then is used as a justification for the Russians to legitimise the actions of Taliban and provide some degree of support to the Taliban.” The degree of support provided by the Russians quantitatively and qualitatively has not been quantified. The charges however remain.
Russians have in recent times come with counter-charges, going to the extent of relating that IS being supported in setting up bases in northern Afghanistan. Whatever the authenticity of charges on either side, it is apparent that US and Russians are working at cross purposes in Afghanistan, much as they have been in West Asian theatre of conflict. Gen. Nicholson said as much, “We’ve had stories written by the Taliban that have appeared in the media about financial support provided by the enemy,” he added. “We’ve had weapons brought to this headquarters and given to us by Afghan leaders who said, ‘This was given by the Russians to the Taliban’ — we know that the Russians are involved.” The indications are that Afghanistan might be heading to a much bigger trouble than it has witnessed so far, with Russians developing stakes in the evolving situation.
US has been supporting Kabul based Af-regime in trying to overcome Af-Taliban. It has proved to be a futile exercise, as Af-Taliban remains in control of more or less 40% of Afghan territory. Of late, US has supported Af-regime led offer of talks to Taliban. The difficulty however lies in Af-Taliban refusing to deal directly with Af-regime taking it to be a lackey of Americans. Af-Taliban is insistent on foreign forces vacating Afghanistan. That could well be music to Russians as in in 80’s of 20th century they were taken to be foreign forces occupying Afghanistan. The Russians could well be giving it back to Americans with hardly a few decades intervening. And, there is an overriding factor, while US is a distant power, Russia borders Central Asia of which Afghanistan is a part. Russia is thus a regional power, as well as a power with widening global impact.
The shifting sands in Afghanistan are not a phenomenon of immediate past, as could be read in Gen. Nicholson’s statement. It was last year in March that US media started reporting that Russia was providing political legitimacy and military supplies to the Taliban in Afghanistan. CNN had reported that, “American military officers see a growing Russian effort to bolster the Taliban’s legitimacy and undercut (the US and) NATO’s military effort there.” Russian officials while denying providing aid related that whatever little engagement they with Af- Taliban was aimed at bringing them to negotiating table. Recent reports however suggest heightening of stakes.
Yaar Zinda, Sohbat Baqi [Reunion is subordinate to survival]