When Covid-19 pandemic started last year, everyone presumed the same to be a short lived phenomenon. It took us more than a month to realise the seriousness, and we yielded to a single appropriate solution of lockdown. Despite negative impact on business, livelihood, education and other necessities, lockdown provided a breather for people to get accustomed to an amended lifestyle and for administration to gear up resources for meeting this gigantic challenge. Towards the autumn, there were subtle indications that this pandemic was gradually getting under control. A year later, although armed with additional research, medicines and vaccines, we are still struggling to control the virus. Several states have already been through two or three waves, with the current onslaught of a fresh surge, which is more severe and fatal.
The phase-wise relaxation period saw an increase in Covid cases due to a plethora of reasons :
- People desperate to come out of their homes after a hiatus.
- Businesses eager to recover lost revenue by stepping up operations in a single go rather than gradual increase.
- Burnout of Medical and Paramedical staff due to over-exertion.
- Excessive strain on Medical infrastructure and resources.
- Enhanced people-to-people interactions over festivals, ceremonies, marriages etc
- Disregard for individual preventive measures due to presumed attitude.
The last point happened to be a major contributor, with folks across the country joining marriage feasts, political rallies, community gatherings and festivities irrespective of the key norms of wearing masks or maintaining social distance.
J&K saw a peak at 1698 cases on 12th Sept (active cases touching 22036 on 20th Sep), including two intermittent spikes of 620 and 751 cases on 7th June and 20th July respectively. The post peak period exhibited a significant decline, with daily cases dropping as low as 43 on 8th Feb (actives down to 595). However, there has been a steep increase in the cases since last week of March’21, leading to a build-up of the second wave, which we are currently combating.
The Urban districts of Srinagar and Jammu happen to be major contributors of the state, with their joint contribution reaching as high as 68% of total active cases at times. Srinagar had depicted an early peak in July’20 while Jammu peaked in Sept/Oct. A noteworthy factor could be the mass movement of people from Srinagar to Jammu post October, resulting thereby in a steady plateau during the winter months when cases in Srinagar were on a decline.
Recovery and fatality rates exhibited a favourable trend till a month back, presumably due to improved medical facilities and better treatment options. However, these metrics are now trending negatively as a result of high patient load and depleting medical resources, a clear indicator of the lack of investment in medical care. The lowest growth rate was seen around beginning of Feb’21 at 0.05% (highest being 7.33% on 7th June). Growth rate of active cases is another metric that needs to be mentioned here. Negative growth rate indicates a decline in actives, thereby suggesting that the pandemic is getting under control. The rate was sub-zero from 24th Sep to 13th Nov (51 days) and again from 10th Dec to 14th Feb (67 days), post which there was a sharp rise to touch a maximum of 9.83 on 7th April.
In the current month, there has been an exponential increase in the number of cases at Srinagar, Reasi, Udhampur and Baramulla, in that order. Though the spike in Srinagar cases can be attributed to inflow of population back during spring season, the other three districts also happen to be the focus of tourist activity. However, the increase can as well be attributed to the overall trend in the country. It would not be out of place to mention the impact of vaccination on the case trend. Covid vaccine was devised ahead of most other countries and the Government did a laudable feat of launching a vaccination drive across the country in record time. Along with all the positives, one small negative impact of vaccination is gross complacency, wherein people who got vaccinated inaptly presumed themselves to be Covid-resistant and started ignoring all precautions, thereby putting their lives and others to great risk.
There is a lot of debate on the current surge of cases, with the administration being criticised for lack of planning/ readiness even after the last year’s onslaught. While critics would have their own arguments, we should appreciate the medics, paramedics and other frontline workers who have been working tirelessly despite limited resources. Some of us owe our survival to them, and would always remain indebted for their selfless service. The scarcity of hospital beds, ventilators and even oxygen cylinders makes us wonder whether the Administration has done enough. It would have been much better if we would have invested in medical infrastructure rather than other development and awareness activities. Promoting tourism, conducting government sponsored events for the State’s progress and people welfare is a much needed step, but it may not be prudent to do so at the cost of people’s health. The authorities need to prioritise between development and health, keeping in mind the ancient adage of “Jaan hai tou Jahaan hai”.
While there could be a prolonged debate about the reasons contributing to current wave, a lot could be achieved by increasing focus on Healthcare. It is apparent that the pandemic can be overcome with a behavioural change in the people. Mulling over a second lockdown, the authorities are possibly ruling against a complete lockdown so as not to cripple the economy and strangle the daily earnings of a majority of the population. The least that all of us can do is to follow the laid down protocols of using masks, social distancing and abstain from gatherings of any kind. In fact, we should resort to a self-lockdown and venture out only for extreme necessities. If all of us practice this self discipline for a month, God willing, we will overcome this calamity soon.
The author publishes daily covid metrics on twitter @suneelwattal.