You cannot prevent and prepare for war at the same time,counselled Einstein. But this is what India and Pakistan are doing right now. Even as they proclaim their love andcommitment for peace and abhorrence of war, they are saying and doingeverything that can only help escalate tensions between the neighbours.
As I write this, a day after India claimed to strikePakistan deep inside the Pakistani territory in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwaprovince, a claim rejected by Islamabad, the neighbours are almost at war,claiming to bring down each other’s fighter jets. All civilian air traffic over a number ofairports in north India and in Pakistan, including flights between the twocountries, have been grounded.
The respective civilian and military leadership in bothcountries has been holding high-level meetings as it contemplates the dangerousescalation — unprecedented since the 1999 war over Kargil – and the unchartedpath ahead.
The day after the exultations in the myriad televisionstudios and on social media over what the Modi government and many of itsacolytes proclaimed as ‘Surgical Strikes 2.0’, the mood in India is sombre. Thereality of the seriousness of the situation and what may unfold in the event ofa full-scale conflagration is beginning to sink in.
This only serves to illustrate how portentous brinkmanshipby unscrupulous politicians, ahead of a critical election, can easily get outof hand and lead to potentially catastrophic consequences.
Under siege from a combative opposition led by a resurgentCongress that has single-mindedly gone after the BJP government and itsdreadful performance on virtually every front — from the demonetisation- andGST-hit economy to the unemployment crisis to the farmers’ distress. Added to the regime’s woes is the stink overthe Rafale fighter jets deal, favouring India’s richest business family, very closeto Modi.
The continuing disclosures by India’s most respectednewspapers like The Hindu revealing how the Prime Minister’s Office sidesteppedthe Defence Ministry and the Army to deal directly with the French governmentin the deal involving billions of rupees have only added credence to theCongress leader Rahul Gandhi’s relentless refrain that ‘chaukidar chor hai'(the self-anointed guard of India’s resources is himself a thief!)
That the party is over for the BJP became starkly clear inthe stunning defeats it sustained in the Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan,Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
Responding swiftly to the shifting political landscape andgroundswell of anger against the most media-savvy government in history, PMModi has taken several strategic measures over the past month or two to turnthe tables on the opposition, setting a whole new narrative ahead of the 2019polls.
The move to offer 10% reservations to all – for those notcovered by quota on the basis of caste given to the Dalits and other backwardcommunities — through an unthinkable Constitutional amendment within 12 hourswas clearly a masterstroke, leaving much of the opposition speechless andclueless.
The opposition was forced to fall in line and vote for thegovernment move on 10% quota; no one could afford to strike a discordant noteand face an angry electorate in elections that are less than month and a halfaway.
That was clearly not enough for Modi who cannot countenancelosing an election at this stage of his career. He is determined to winsomehow, no matter what the cost for the nation or for peace and stability inthe region.
He had to make it certain that come May 2019 it is him, andnot his challenger Rahul Gandhi, once again who takes the oath of office at theRashtrapati Bhavan on the Raisina Hill in Delhi.
The unprecedented attack on the CRPF contingent killing 40troops at Pulwama in Kashmir couldn’t have come at a more appropriate time. Nowonder many on both sides of the border, including Raj Thackeray no less,suspect it to be a false flag aimed at helping desperate politicians winelections.
As Prime Minister Imran Khan tried to reason, if anyone paidattention, why would Pakistan resort to such an attack at a time when it wasall set to host an all-important friend and ally, namely Saudi Crown PrinceMohammed bin Salman.
Whoever orchestrated and staged the Pulwama attack, it wasquickly hijacked and milked cleverly by those in power — a la Gujarat 2002 —whipping up hate and jingoistic sentiment in the country and leading to hundredsof attacks on Kashmiri students and merchants as well as Indian Muslims.
Modi himself vowed to avenge Pulwama repeatedly at hiselectoral rallies across the country, talking of giving a “free hand” to thearmed forces — as if his predecessors had ever restrained them – and settingthe stage for an inevitable showdown with Pakistan.
Whatever happened in Bala Kote — wherever on earth that is,in Rajouri in Indian-administered Kashmir or in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa – it hasdangerously escalated the situation. Thetwo nuclear-armed rivals with a long and bitter history of perpetual conflict,and worse, are locked in a hair-raising, eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation. The fate of 1.5 billion people of South Asiahangs by a thread.
What would it take for India and Pakistan to step back fromthe brink in the interest of peace and stability in the region and wellbeing oftheir billion and half people and talk and resolve their issues like matureadults?
What is reassuring is the fact that despite the relentlesswarmongering and madness seen in television studios and at political rallies, thereare enough sane minds on both sides who know only too well what a war betweenthe South Asian giants could entail.
Imran Khan, who has many friends and fans in India, hasadded several inches to his stature by reaching out to the neighbour at a timewhen the war-war sentiment on both sides is dangerously high. He hasdemonstrated immense courage and maturity by striking a conciliatory note andcalling for better sense and restraint on both sides at a time like this.
Indeed, if anyone has the potential to sincerely engage anddo business with India, it’s this unconventional politician. India would do well to accept his hand offriendship extended with genuine sincerity. By refusing to engage the saner elements in Pakistan, the Modigovernment is only helping the extremists.
Of course, the last thing a cash-strapped Pakistan wantsright now is a debilitating and immensely costly war with India. But this is not going to be a picnic forIndia either. With a struggling economyand multiple other crises facing the country, India can pay an incalculableprice if its adventurous rulers decide to take a shot at quick political glory.
However, if the lessons of all the Indo-Pak wars, includingthe last showdown over Kargil, are any guide, all war are easy to start buthard to end. Besides, if politicians think military adventures or even meremuscle-flexing could help them win elections, they are grievously mistaken.
Let’s not forget that despite the success of Kargil and thespiel of ‘India Shining’ campaign, Vajpayee, a much wiser leader from Modi’sown party, lost the 2004 elections to Sonia Gandhi’s Congress.
Winston Churchill, Britain’s legendary hero of the World WarII against Hitler’s Germany, lost elections to Labour’s Atlee. So military adventures are no guarantee ofelectoral glory. When the nuclear powersface off, there are no winners; only losers all around.
Aijaz Zak Syed is a former Khaleej Times editor.
aijaz.syed@hotmail.com.