United Arab Emirates (UAE) foreign minister Sheikh Abdullahbin Zayed’s visit to India earlier this week came at a time of extraordinaryand growing tension in the Gulf region. Apart from discussing bilateral tieshis Indian counterpart external affairs minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and hewould have focussed on recent regional developments which can critically andadversely impact both countries.
Like his father Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan who, with the comingof great oil revenues, wisely managed the transformation of Abu Dhabi and theUAE from impoverishment to affluence and influence, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed,the present crown prince of the Abu Dhabi emirate and the brother of theforeign minister, is dextrously leading the country to higher levels ofpolitical and social development and global influence. Clearly, he has decidedto raise the strength of India-UAE ties in all areas, including in the securitysector. His approach is fully reciprocated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
India’s interests demand a stable West Asian region.Millions of Indians live and work in the Arab Peninsular countries. Theirsafety and welfare would be harmed if armed hostilities break-out between theUS and Iran. The area’s oil rich countries are vital for India’s energysecurity and significant commercial interests are tied up with the region too.With all this at stake India is closely monitoring the situation. SheikhAbdullah bin Zayed’s insights into what is transpiring behind the scenes wouldhave provided valuable inputs into India’s understanding of the situation andwhat may be expected in the weeks and months to come.
As this writer has noted in earlier columns the currentdifficulties can be traced to President Donald Trump’s decision to walk out ofthe Iran nuclear deal, formally called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action(JCPOA). It is a multi-lateral agreement signed in July 2015 between Iran andsix major powers—the US, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany. Theprincipal negotiating parties were Iran and the US under President BarackObama. The core of the ten-year agreement ensured that Iran would not be ableto make nuclear weapons as it would not enrich uranium beyond 3.67%. Iran alsoagreed to send its stockpiles abroad. In return the US agreed to gradually liftsanctions against Iran and other countries agreed to do so to.
The essential implication of the deal was to allow Iranspace to return to a position of greater influence in regional affairs and alsoin the Islamic ummah. Consequently, greater Iranian impact began to be felt inYemen and in regional countries especially with notable Shia populations. Thiswas not acceptable to conservative sections of the US political opinion whichlook to West Asia through the prism of Israel and the Sunni Arab Peninsularstates, including the UAE. These countries were implacably opposed to the dealand found a fellow-traveller in the Trump.
The Trump administration walked out of the deal in May 2018.It also decided to re-impose US sanctions and has done so through the last oneyear gradually in a more and more stringent manner. The US objective was todamage Iran’s economy with the announced objective of inducing more’responsible’ conduct. The actual aim is nothing short of regime change throughthe replacement of the Iranian clerical governance system—the Vilayat-e-Faqih witha secular system.
The other signatories of the JCPOA announced that they stoodby the agreement but with the US lynchpin having dropped their support for Irancould not really sustain Iranian oil exports or continue to provide Iran withassured and smooth global financial services which are required by the Iranianeconomy. The reason is that multinational companies do not want to incurproblems under the US sanctions regime. US is acting virtually unilaterally butas the world’s pre-eminent country it gets away with such arm-twisting. This isthe reality of the international system which is based on power not justice.
While Iran has basically remained calm in the face of USprovocations certain actions against international shipping in and around theGulf in May and June have been attributed to it. These have heightened tensionsand led to US augmenting deployments in the Gulf region including through anaircraft carrier naval group and troops. This step sent alarm bells ringingthrough the world and worries increased when Iran shot down late last month aUS drone which it claimed had violated its airspace. American action to strikeIran was called off by Trump at the last moment.
Neither country wants war but the latest action by Iran tobreak the shackles on uranium enrichment is a step up the escalatory ladder.Iran has done so to signal to Europe that it has to take action to demonstratethat it will abide by the deal and disregard US sanctions. Europe has not doneso as yet and it is difficult to see how it can. Europe is thereforecounselling Iran to be patient. Within Iran too tempers are rising.
There is little doubt that the UAE does not want armedhostilities but would like pressure to be maintained on Iran so that itscapacity to play a regional role is contained. The difficulty for the UAE asfor India is that Trump can hardly be influenced. The saving grace is thatTrump too does not want war but his erratic approach derived from his realestate deal making leads to dangerous brinkmanship.