Bhartiya Janata Party’s southward journey has been hitting stumbling block; checkmated by the people of Karnataka in May, 2023 and snapping of ties by its major ally, AIADMK in Tamil Nadu may further squeeze its chances of keeping high optimism about cornering maximum seats in this state in 2024 parliamentary polls.
Experts say that shrinking base of AIADMK in Dravidian Politics coupled with los of the minority owing to its association with BJP might have contributed to current crisis though other dominant factors cited include unpopularity of the party, state BJP chief, K. Annamalai’s frontal attack on DMK founder and former chief minister. Annadurai, sharp differences in alliance dynamistic.
Scarcity of alliance partners in south:
It is an established fact that it will extremely difficult for BJP to solely bank on Hindi heartland. South India accounts for about a fifth of Lok Sabha seats i.e. 130 out of a total of 543 seats. As per current status, the southern states’ breakup includes 28 seats in Karnataka, 25 in Andhra Pradesh, 17 in Telangana, 39 in Tamil Nadu, 20 in Kerala, and one in the Union territory of Puducherry. In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the BJP won 21 seats from this pool of 130 and increased its tally to 29 in the 2019 polls. The vast majority of these victories for the BJP came from Karnataka— 18 in 2004, 19 in 2009, 17 in 2014 and 25 in 2019 but this crucial state has been snatched by Congress party which will try to exploit assembly polls victory in Lok Sabha elections.
Political observers do not rule out the latent reason of Sanatan Dharma controversy intentionally started by chief minister, M.K. Stalin’s son Udhayanidhi Stalin who favored its eradication as it divides society on the basis of caste and religion. Central and state BJP leader had vehemently condoned Udhayanidhi and expected strong reaction from TN AIADMK leaders who preferred to be silent which had infuriated high command. But AIADMK’s survival will depend upon the issues like Sanatan Dharama which may in consonance with anti-Hindi mindset of Southern people. Nothing is impossible in politics hence AIADMK may also hope against hope to have alliance with Congress by offering 20 out of 39 seats? But chances may not be very bright as CM, Stlain enjoys personal close rapport with Rahul and Sonia Gandhi who have been working in tandem.
Alliance with AIADMK
AIADMK’s hold over major castes like Vaniyars (54%), Gounder (59 %),Vishwakarma (57 %) had proved fruitful to its alliance with BJP in the past hence snapping of ties may harm the interest of saffron party. Two, keeping in view castes equations, the Dalits (20 percent), Muslims (6 percent) and Arunthathiyar (68%) had benefited DMK – Congress alliance to cover up gap in Thevar community which included DMK (19 percent) and AIADMK (55%) and may hit adversely after the split in opposition. Three, ground reality shows that OPS draws strength from southern parts of Tamil Nadu as his community Thevar (55%) is dominant in the region though Shashikala also belongs to this clan whereas EPS wields influence in western parts and hails from Gounder caste having majority. Fourth, BJP has been enjoying on the splits engineered by saffron party in different states but it seems to be on receiving end in Tamil Nadu as it could not stop open revolt in AIADMK.A divided AIADMK will have to bear the brunt of split in votes which is not good news for BJP.
Future strategy of DMK
Analysts opine that DMK may continue its tirade against BJP’s Hindutva after failed experiment in Karnataka and it formed, a strong weapon of BJP which has been witnessed in the past when OPS was projected as an integral part of saffron party. DMK had also exploited EPS’s frequent meetings with prime minister, Narender Modi and dubbed him as close associate. DMK may bank upon Anti BJP tirade in 2024 Lok Sabha elections while citing that RSS and BJP government did not consult any provincial party over farm laws, NEET, JEE or CUET which shows its ideology of non-consultation and an attempt to undermine regional parties. It is fact that Gurumurthy had claimed that it was on his advice that OPS initially rebelled against Sasikala, hence he had given a piece of advice to OPS to visit Jayalalithaa’s samadhi for “inspiration. Several anti BJP regional parties have been accusing the saffron party of eating up the alliance partners to create a space for itself. Track record shows that both DMK and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) have helped the BJP in getting a foothold on different occasions. But, the DMK, since 2001, has turned its back on the BJP while the AIADMK has done it now thereby giving setback to its ambition though central leaders may still try to appease AIADMK to revive the alliance.
BJP’s future in south
In AP, there are 25 Lok Sabha seats and the BJP in the 2019 LS elections had failed to win even a single seat. However, the BJP won the two seats in 2014 in Andhra Pradesh. Now, it has been working on a plan to project it as an alternative to Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress. State party chief, Somu Veerraju’s claim about BJP-JSP combine seems to be exaggerated but he is hopeful about better performance of alliance in Andhra Pradesh in 2024, BJP expects that like-minded parties will join hands with the combine and accuses the YSRCP government of diverting Central funds. In Telangana, the BJP currently faces a significant electoral challenge. At present, the KCR-led BRS holds a majority with 101 MLAs out of the total 119 seats in the assembly whereas the BJP has just three MLAs and four MPs. KCR has been pushed to corner by center and relations have gone sour. In Telangana, there are 17 Lok Sabha seats and the BJP won only four seats in 2019, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) won nine, the Congress emerged victorious in three, and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) got the remaining one. In Karnataka, BJP-JD(S) alliance has been formalised but Congress is upbeat after its victory I assembly polls which work to the advantage of I.N.D.I.A if seat sharing materializes. The vast majority of victories for the BJP had come from Karnataka which include 18 in 2004, 19 in 2009, 17 in 2014, and 25 in 2019. Kerala. It’s a similar story in Kerala, which shares a border with Karnataka. While the BJP has invested significant resources in the state with the aim of appealing to the Christian community it has not gained much traction. Its leadership has identified six constituencies including Thiruvananthapuram, Pathanamthitta, Thrissur, and Palakkad for the general elections and has engaged the RSS and its affiliates to lay the groundwork for achieving this goal. Contrary to it, Bharat Joda Yatra led by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi had begun from Kanyakumari to create impact amongst the people. With its cadre-driven status, national dominance, and popularity of PM Modi, the BJP is keen to replace the multi-layered bipolar polity in the State. Till now, it has only been flattering to deceive.
In final assessment, analysts opine that BJP had exhibited its strength by bringing together 36 parties including ten having no MP in parliament which was aimed at creating psychological impact on the minds of people besides countering an impact of creation if I.N.D.I.A. But the loss of major allies including JD(U) on Aug 9,2022, Shrimani Akali Dal, Sept.26,2020, Shiv Sena, Nov.23,2019 and now AIADMK, Sept. 26, 2023 may make visible difference in 2024 though nothing can be predicated about final showdown of Modi versus rest?
(Writer is political analyst and senior journalist based in Shimla)