It is myth busting time. A habit persists in South Asia where there is more trust in myths than in the reality. For long, there was a strongly held view that China is becoming an all-powerful country and its rise could not be contained. It had cast its shadow over most of the global aspects – politics, economy and culture. Its investment and expansion plans through its ambitious Belt Road Initiative that traversed to Asia, Europe, Africa and Latin America was reshaping the world order. It was a success story in making. That was the myth.
The BRI is there, but this ambitious project travelling through old silk route has struck against wall. Its sheen has started fading. The reckless manner in which it was undertaken, ambiguities were certain to cloud it.
This has become clearer now as the researchers at Boston university have discovered that the project has run into debt crisis for China. Certain things were clear from the very beginning. It was flawed. China applied its model at home of building infrastructure and world class connectivity to other countries without taking into consideration their political, geographical and cultural make up.
China, and the rest of the world, had not anticipated that a devastating pandemic of Corona Virus will visit in 2020, though it was named as Covid-19, destroy economies and tell upon the viability of the project in which billions of dollars were invested by the Chinese financial institutions, Asian Investment Bank and respective countries’ financial institutions.
It is a lesson that whenever in future such massive and multi-national projects are planned, the unforeseen situations too should be put on the table. Things never work as per the script. The nature and human failures are too frequent to be predicted.
In the current geopolitical situation, it has become necessary to learn and unlearn the messages from BRI. It is not just the economic distress that is disturbing enough, and can tell upon the viability of the overall project and rupture hope and dream of the countries involved in the project.
There is another breach of promise by China. It should hold lessons for all those in India and, in particular in Jammu and Kashmir, who sought to portray China as a powerful country that could help solve all the internal situations through its influence.
A contrast has already emerged. Chinese President Xi Jinping while delivering speech at the opening ceremony of “The Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation” on May 14, 2017, had declared: “First, we should build the the Belt and Road into a road for peace. The ancient silk routes thrived in times of peace, but lost vigour in times of war. The pursuit of the Belt and Road Initiative requires a peaceful and stable environment. We should foster a new type of international relations featuring win-win cooperation; and we should forge partnerships of dialogue with no confrontation and of friendship rather than alliance. All countries should respect each other’s sovereignty, dignity and territorial integrity, each other’s development paths and social systems, and each other’s core interests and major concerns.” The reality has deviated from the scripted list of promises.
In India, there were many voices that urged the leadership to join the BRI, and in particular, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, to become a partner in the regional development. This could very well have been a tempting proposition, but the Indian leadership showed its maturity. While seeking friendly ties with China for the overall peace and stability in the region, the Indian leadership resisted the geographical trap that could have impacted its strategic sovereignty.
Some leaders in Jammu and Kashmir were vocal and impressed upon the leadership to join the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Their intentions were good for they thought that if India joins the initiative many tensions that riddled the Indo-Pak relations could be reversed and the economic prosperity will emerge as the driving factor. The alternate possibility, now visible in the hindsight, is that the BRI and its flagship CPEC are turning out to be a liability. Pakistanis know that what they are undergoing.
The leaders in J&K need to reflect whether the BRI is the promised “Road to peace,” or something else. Had China been sincere in its approach, it would not have created a situation in Ladakh.
All the leaders who took China and its promises about the BRI at face value, need to re-evaluate their assessment. Their optimism was misplaced.
But one thing that Delhi should learn from the whole episode is that physical road connectivity and bridges make the emotional bridges. In a place where a highway is yet to graduate to an all–weather road tells its own story. There is no need to further reflect on the subject – the claustrophobia caused by the frequently closed highway also disturbs the emotions. integration should be palpable – physical routes impact the psychology.