The meeting of union home minister Amit Shah with the core group of J&K BJP on September 25 can help the party leaders in Jammu to get back on track and re-connect with common masses. The continuous inactiveness and hibernation of most of them had led to a type of disconnect with the people at the ground level.
Whether or not the urban local bodies (ULBs) and panchayat polls are held on time, the senior party leaders will have to come out of the hibernation, reach out to the people and deliver before the crucial Lok Sabha elections.
According to the political analysts, the direction of home minister to J&K BJP to reach out to people extensively to inform them about the large scale development and pro- people schemes launched by the government post abrogation of Article 370 can help in countering the campaign of rival parties that nothing was done for the people in Jammu by the BJP government. Another directive to the leaders to bring the problems of the people into the notice of government officers for their solution is to make them act like a bridge between the masses and the administration. For whatever reasons this bridge was not practically visible and was hitting the party interests in their stronghold.
For quite some time now, the leaders of various rival parties have been visiting Jammu and telling the people that nothing has been done by the BJP for them and that their problems are getting aggravated day by day. It was a cause of concern for the BJP leadership there which till now was not able to effectively neutralise the criticism. A bandh was recently observed in Jammu against the Sarore toll plaza and installation of smart meters issues. This encouraged the other parties, which were almost decimated in previous elections, to try to take advantage and say that BJP has lost its ground in Jammu. While it is too early to say whether or not BJP is in trouble in Jammu but politically the emerging scenario was not a healthy sign for the party. The political leaders could have averted the occurrence of such a situation using their influence. But they did not or could not and thus gave the opposition parties a chance to atleast get some kind of solace after a pretty long time.
In that backdrop, the meeting of home minister with the core group was much needed for the party. As per reports the meeting was called by the home minister to get the feedback of local BJP leaders about the urban local bodies and panchayat polls besides the Lok Saba and assembly elections. Other organisational matters and local and administrative issues also came under discussion. A separate meeting of J&K BJP leaders was held with party President J P Nadda.
Fully aware of the Jammu developments, the strong BJP leadership at the centre would not like their party to suffer due to a seemingly complacent approach of most local leaders and would accordingly take whatever corrective measures are needed. The meeting with home minister has set the tone and his clear cut directions are seen as an important move towards change in BJP strategy for grassroots level. The Jammu bandh had hit the confidence of a section of J&K BJP leadership, which according to reports in media, is privately advocating deferring of ULBs and Panchayat polls and favouring holding of those after the Lok Sabha elections. The resentment, if any, against BJP leadership can get reflected in the ULBs and Panchayat polls since local issues are of more importance in such type elections. In view of some latest media reports that ULBs and Panchayat elections may be deferred, the opposition parties have started claiming that BJP is fearing defeat and does not want these polls as well now.
Since uncertainty continues regarding the exact timing of assembly polls, the BJP leadership has got more than enough time to get the local problems of people solved and minimise whatever the resentment is there till that time. But will the party be able to do so till then is a matter of time. In assembly polls the thrust of BJP campaign would be to have the first chief minister in J&K from the party and the leaders would like to get votes on it as well. To what extent the party will be able to convince the voters will also depend upon how the people there view the abrogation of article 370 and the measures taken after that and also the solution of their day- to- day problems.
In parliament polls the BJP supporters actually do not vote for their party constituency candidates but they vote for prime minister Narendra Modi to get him back to power. As per reports the home minister has asked the Jammu BJP to work hard for Lok Sabha polls as well for getting PM Modi back to power. So the BJP leadership in Jammu will have to increase and extend their public out-reach.
Political observers believe that unlike the leadership of other major parties in Jammu and Kashmir, most BJP leaders in Jammu did not show interest in growing politically the way they should have. Only a few have proved their mettle and are active and visible publicly. According to the observers all the success of BJP in Jammu since 2014 is mostly because of the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It is being felt in the political circles that in absence of an elected government in J&K, the local BJP leaders could not act as a bridge between the people and the administration.
For some time now some BJP leaders from Jammu are trying to create a base in Kashmir for their party. They in this connection are reaching out to the people. Politically it is considered as a step in right direction by the party supporters. The party can make efforts to gain a foothold in yet to be conquered the tough political terrains of Kashmir but at the same time it cannot afford to lose focus in their stronghold in Jammu. To keep their grip firm there, the party leaders will have to show effective visibility on the ground and not to allow other parties to make in- roads. NC, Congress and PDP have increased their activities there. Even Syed Mohammad Altaf Bukhari, who launched the Apni Party only few years back, is very much active in Jammu also. Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic Progressive Azad Party ( DPAP) has also its presence in some pockets. BJP has to neutralise the growing influence of the other parties if it has to remain in command in Jammu.
The advantage with the BJP right now is a divided opposition camp. While the parties like NC, PDP and Congress at times are talking about the unity and are also part of national level INDIA allies, but in Jammu and Kashmir they talk differently indicating that there may not be any pre- poll alliance among them in any polls in coming times. National Conference vice president Omar Abdullah says that the parties should contest in all constituencies except for those where BJP candidates have a chance to win. “In such constituencies the INDIA allies should field a joint candidate to minimise the chances of BJP’s victory, ” he said while talking to media recently.
Pradesh Congress Committee (PCC) chief Vikar Rasool Wani recently claimed that only his party has a strong base in all the assembly constituencies in J&K and that other parties like NC, PDP and BJP have influence in limited constituencies only. Even as the claim does not carry the weight but it indicates that the local Congress leadership is not in a mood for any – pre- poll alliance.
However, at the election time, the decision of Congress high command in New Delhi about any such an alliance will matter and not that of J&K party leadership, which has to follow the directive of its central leadership.
As per media reports, the J&K BJP leadership during their meeting with home minister said that they are very much ready for any polls and that people of Jammu continue to support them and their party. They blamed Congress for wrongly projecting some issues to mislead and misinform the people. Whatever be their stand but they will have to work hard to strengthen further their party and stop other parties from cashing on local issues and grievances if they really want to remain relevant in coming times as well. Political analysts view that delaying polls is not a permanent solution and that one day the parties will have to face the elections and go to the people to get the votes.
Author is senior editor, Greater Kashmir