It will be sometime before the depth of Narendra Modi’selectoral sweep sinks in and a much longer time before the phenomenon is betterunderstood. The Prime Minister was right in telling his party workers that thiscountry has truly given him a lot and that political pundits will have torevisit all their understanding of the country and the aspirations of thepeople. There are many explanations on offer and all of them probablycontributed to the Modi juggernaut. But even taken together, they may not fullyexplain the enormity of the victory and the scale or depth of change thisrepresents. The 2019 victory is more special and far more significant than theone in 2014 in that it clearly establishes the BJP as a national party thatenjoys popular appeal. This is not a vote on the rebound; it is rather a cooland calculated and affirmative vote in favour of a party that has, it wouldappear, caught the imagination of the people. It stands today as the onlynational party that is growing its base of supporters while debunking positionsand niceties that have been considered must- haves for a political party in theIndian context. This is reflected as much in the electoral numbers of the BJPas it is in the decimation of the Opposition and the manner in which thoseconsidered giants were slayed, including Rahul Gandhi in Amethi, the seat thathas always been with the Congress.
A complete sweep
It is true that the BJP carried a divisive agenda, that itdragged the armed forces into the electoral battle by bringing the retaliatoryair strikes on Balakot in Pakistan into election rallies and ran a campaignthat virtually turned away the focus from what might be considered everydayissues of the people. Is this a good enough explanation of its sweepingvictory? Other reasons can be added post facto: The cohesiveness and superiorpoll machinery of the BJP contrasted with rag-tag alternatives and patchworkalliances; the Congress fighting hard but largely trapped in its old ways ofworking, the lack of a clean choice against Modi as the strongman; the clearmoney power of the BJP; the influence of direct transfers of subsidies, thedeep polarisation caused by the BJP.
But beyond this,something deeper appears to have moved such that caste has been obliterated atleast when it comes to voting patterns, demonetisation is forgotten, thetraders have excused the poor implementation of the GST, the economy in adownturn has not dented the government, the dictatorial tendencies of theleader have not brought any downside and allegations of corruption on theRafale deal have not stuck. The Prime Minister himself has pointed out threefeatures – that there was no talk of price rise this election, no party spokeof secularism in the campaign (“this tribe has stopped speaking,” he said) andallegations on corruption were not an issue in the elections (they were anissue but the issue did not fire with the electorate). On secularism, in fact,reports have it that key Congress candidates made it a point to play the Hinducard. In Bhopal, the Congress party’s high-profile candidate Digvijay Singhtried to out-saffron the saffron party’s loose-talking Pragya Thakur, whocalled Nathuram Godse a patriot. The veteran Congressman lost to the novice, anaccused in a terror conspiracy, by a margin of over 3.5 lakh votes. So, if thegame is the Hindu card, why not go with the party that plays it openly andtakes a clear position rather than the one playing the “soft” version of thesame card?
The so-called “veterans”
That brings up a very important question for the Oppositionparties, in particular the Congress. Who really are the veterans and what dothey stand for? Who really was the opposition to the BJP’s well-oiled machinerythat spun its story, often sharply but also fumbling and mumbling along theway? The fact is that there is a sense of fatigue with the kind of choices thatthe Opposition in India has offered. The so-called veterans are no more thanold timers who are associated with the kind of politics that is despised, thekind that makes people turn away from politics. There were many jokes on Modibut the jokes on the Opposition leaders are age-old and are not recounted justbecause the jokes look as tired as these leaders themselves. For example, inMaharashtra, it is well-known that less than 100 Maratha families dominatelocal politics, cooperatives and politics, so complete a family control thatelections are almost a farce. The BJP is not free from dynasty but it is not asmuch subsumed into the culture of spoils in the family as the other parties,and particularly the Congress. It is not surprising that the sons of theso-called veterans lost. Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot’s son VaibhavGehlot, Murli Deora’s son Milind Deora, who was endorsed by the industrialistMukesh Ambani and headed the Mumbai Congress, Karnataka Chief Minister HDKumaraswamy’s son Nikhil Kumaraswamy, and Sharad Pawar’s grand nephew and AjitPawar’s son Parth – all lost in their traditional strongholds. In contrast, theBJP changed many of its MPs and brought in newer faces.
Modi-magic or…
Given the extent ofthe BJP victory, it is still tempting to offer the explanation that there is aModi-magic at work. Here is a superman who is capable of playing with theemotions of the people of India, leading them Pied Piper-like along a path thatpeople are all too willing to walk and unmindful of where it leads. This is theexplanation that speaks of a supremo who can lead us to a new place – thedescription of that new place will vary – a bold new India or a divided andbroken down nation — depending on who offers that description. But equally, itis possible to look at the confluence of events and argue that the Oppositionremains way too short of what it must offer to make a dent. There is a lot ofclamour for the exit of the dynasty and of the resignation of Rahul Gandhi asthe President of the Congress party. His offer to quit and subsequently beingpersuaded not to quit, is an old joke being re-run. But curiously, he was thenew face of this election. The problem probably lies with the old guard andthis column has often argued that a new Congress with the old guard controllingthe levers will not be able to challenge the BJP in its current avatar.
The author is a journalist with the Foundation of The Billion Press and a facultymember at SPJIMR.