After a twenty-two-month investigation on alleged Russianinterference in the 2016 US Presidential election special counsel RobertMueller handed over his report to US Attorney General Raymond Barr last week. While the report isnot public Barr has released its conclusions. Mueller has stated that there isno evidence that President Donald Trump and his election campaign conspired orcolluded with Russia to influence the 2016 US Presidential election.
Mueller has however held that Russia, by itself, had soughtto intervene in the election process; consequently, during the course of theinvestigation many Russian individuals and entities were indicted for allegedlydoing so. Of course US prosecutors cannot really act on these indictments forit will be impossible for them to get hold of the indicted Russians.
On allegations against Trump for obstructing justice Muellernoted “while this report does not conclude that the President committed a crimeit also does not exonerate him”. In his letter to US Congressional leaders,Barr asserted that as Mueller had not reached any legal conclusions on thischarge it was his duty to decide if the President’s conduct described byMueller constituted a crime; he had reached the conclusion that it did not.
Trump is elated because the fear of an adverse Muellerreport leading to criminal charges has lifted. Such charges could not have resultedin a trial but Trump’s moral authority would have vanished and impeachmentwould have been likely. Trump’s satisfaction is all the greater for Muelleralso concluded that no further indictments were necessary. Thus, Trump’s sonand son-in-law are also off the hook.
The opposition Democratic party is deeply disappointed andsome of its members in the House of Representatives may begin processes to digout facts to embarrass Trump. However, as the Mueller investigation wasextremely detailed and thorough it is unlikely that their efforts will revealfacts that can seriously damage Trump. The Mueller report too when it isfinally made public may contain portions that indicate some instances ofimpropriety on Trump’s part but this is unlikely to faze the President or hissupporters.
With all this effectively behind him there will be a moreassertive Trump. How will he now act in the domestic and foreign policyspheres? Some thoughts are given below.
A Trump bid for asecond term is now assured. It is true that Trump did not win the popular votein the 2016 election and a strong challenger may emerge from among theDemocrats but it is never easy to defeat a sitting President. Besides, Trump’sbase is intact. He will no doubt feed it with assertive actions on issues suchas immigration and trade protection and inaction on issues such asenvironmental protection or gun control. Liberal America will wring its hands.It will be able to do little more.
Now on some aspects of the external front. Trump’s decisionto recognise Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights cannot be entirelyattributed to the Mueller report because he had recognised Jerusalem as thecountry’s capital in December 2017 and so the US had shifted its embassy therein May 2018. It is likely though that an adverse Mueller report may have pausedhis hand on the Golan issue. The Golan decision may not attract the sameintense vociferous opposition as the Jerusalem one because of the internalcontradictions of the Arab and Islamic worlds.
Israel occupied part of the Golan Heights during the 1967Arab-Israeli war. It claimed thereafter that the territory was necessary forits security and annexed it in 1981. That step was condemned by the UnitedNations and no country gave it legal sanctity. Now the US has become the firstto do so. Trump has, once again, shown disdain for collective global action andhas preferred to go ahead unilaterally. In this process he is only eroding thevery world order that the US has sought to maintain since World War 2.
Trump announced the Golan decision with Israeli PrimeMinister Benjamin Netanyahu standing by his side in Washington. It is expectedthat the decision will boost Netanyahu’s electoral chances in the difficultupcoming Israeli elections. That this too constitutes meddling in anothercountry’s election process perhaps escaped the US President at a time whenMueller’s report had catalogued alleged Russian intervention in the US process.
Significantly, Trump railed against Iran as he stood alongwith Netanyahu. Here too what he wants is the overthrow of the clerical orderand regime change. The fact is that despite swearing to uphold the principle ofnon-interference in the internal affairs of other countries all states seek todo so, in keeping with their capacities, when they assess that their interestsdemand such action. It is only that the world’s most powerful country does notwant that other countries should try to do to it what it routinely does tothem!
Trump will now, with the Mueller boost, put greater pressureon his negotiators to conclude discussions with the Taliban so that he canorder the return of more US troops from Afghanistan. The negotiation processwill not be easy for the US is conducting itself virtually as a defeated powerand the Taliban hold most of the cards. The next few weeks will show if theTaliban agree to a general cease-fire. That will indicate forward movement.
India’s region and the world will now have to get used tothe idea that Donald Trump may be here to stay for six more years.