One of the biggest takeaways of recent I.N.D.I.A alliance’s meeting pertained to a ‘Googly’ by Mamata Banerjee with the connivance of Delhi chief minister, Arvind Kejriwal and Udhav Thakre to float the name of Congress president, Mallikarjun Kharge as I.N.D.I.A’s Prime ministerial face in 2024. It caused ripples amongst the alliance partners but Kharge meticulously handled the situation as he gave top priority to win the majority seats in the elections whereas other issues can be kept in abeyance.
Mamata’s ploy may not work:
As per sources in AICC, Sonia and Rahul Gandhi are reportedly committed to the assurance given to Nitish Kumar to play an important role in taking INDIA to logical end. Rahul Gandhi did speak to Nitish and dissociated himself and Sonia Gandhi from any secret move to float the name of Kharge who has clarified about the commitment of Congress to ensure the success of INDIA. There seems to be remote chance of any misunderstanding as Nitish and Lalu Prasad Yadav have been responsible for creating the atmosphere contributing to the formation of INDIA. Nitish Kumar’s plunge in national politics will pave the way for the transfer of power to Tejashwi Yadav in Bihar and plan has got approval of Congress party.
Political observers feel that Mamata Banerjee’s political move could be a by-product of the well calculated strategy which might serve a twin purpose. First, it may be aimed at keeping Nitish Kumar at bay though it can bring Congress in confrontation with JD (U) and RJD in Bihar.
It could have also put Congress in an embarrassing position but Kharge refused to take the enticement and clarified that his top priority pertained to focusing on a one-point programme of defeating BJP. He did not give weightage to the ploy of deciding the PM face as it will become reality only if INDIA wins the majority in the elections otherwise it will remain a mirage.
What are the advantages of Kharge, a tallest Dalit leader, as PM candidate:
1ST experts feel that while proposing the name of Mallikarjun Kharge for the post of prime minister, West Bengal chief minister has floated the name of a most protuberant Dalit leader who has got potential to challenge PM, Narender Modi in 2024.
2nd, a majority of regional leaders may agree to the proposal of Mamata, Kejriwal and Udhav Thakre as Kharge is the most acceptable, cool headed, mature and experienced leader who can take everyone along.
3rd , it can sway the Dalit votes in the entire country if he gets a rare opportunity to become PM which was denied to late Jagjivan Ram by the Congress. Jagjivan Ram nurtured an ambition to become PM but he never got a chance especially owing to the extreme position enjoyed by late Indira Gandhi at that time.
4th , eighty-four Lok Sabha seats including 21 from Karnataka (Kharge’s home state), 17 in Uttar Pradesh, Kerala (18), MP (16) etc. are reserved for SC category in the country and Dalits can act as ‘Kingmakers’ in 30 Lok Sabha as their percentage of population ranges from 21% to 41 %.
Modi versus Kharge
Experts feel that nothing is certain for the moment about the finalization of Kharge as face of the alliance which can be attributed to personal ambition, inflated egos and contempt for Congress.
But there can be some anxiety in saffron party and RSS camps which would have preferred to make the 2024 contest as Modi versus Rahul Gandhi. The reason is simple. BJP has been putting congress on the mat on the accusation of ‘Parivarvad’ but it will not stick to Kharge who hails from a deprived section of the society and first leader from non-Gandhi family in two and half decades.
Kharge is a Dalit and BJP cannot afford to attack him as it has got a risk of alienating the Dalits from the party in the country. Besides having ten straight wins to his credit, he has exhibited his management skill and administrative quality by controlling factionalism in Congress though not fully.
He has got positives of winning Karnataka, Himachal and Telangana which has given him a lot of confidence though loss in three states has neutralized this political advantage. Kharge is the tallest leader in the alliance and even constituents recognize his qualities to take on Modi.
But on the weaker front, Kharge can be a popular face in southern states but he does not have appeal in Hindi heartland which is so essential to become a force in 2024.
He had lost his seat in 2019 which can be exploited by NDA while comparing with Modi with him. Modi has shown his potential even to win assembly elections for BJP. The age factor is also a worrying element for Kharge who is 81-year-old and it may be an uphill task to campaign relentlessly in the entire country.
Contrary to it, it makes a good and impressive reading embedded in reality when experts analyze Modi’s ‘Charisma’ and his extreme popularity which goes beyond the realm of our country. The loss of Himachal and Karnataka might have put a question mark over Modi’s capacity to ensure the victory of the party in state polls.
But Modi has tilted pendulum in his favor as he is being primarily credited for the recent spectacular victory in three state elections which were fought on his name i.e. “Modi’s Guarantee.” BJP high command and RSS had taken a huge risk of exposing Modi in these elections as none of the state leaders including sitting chief minister, Madhya Pradesh Shivraj Singh Chouhan was projected as CM candidate.
It was an overriding reason for effecting generational change by nominating young and not much-known faces as new CMs in three states.
Modi has already launched his campaign to ensure third successive win in 2024 by coining a new phraseology which says that he does not believe in a caste system as his vision consists of India’s four castes only including youth, farmers, OBC and the development of women. Modi has got the gift of oratory and extraordinary skill to divert the attention of common people even from anti-incumbency, price rise, unemployment, opposition parties’ onslaught besides a having an extraordinary talent of connecting with the masses in the entire country.
At the age of 73, Modi has got tremendous capacity to campaign in all parts of the country which puts him in a unique category.
K.S. TOMAR, political analyst and senior journalist based in Shimla