Srinagar, Jan 11
Erratic weather patterns this winter will spell doom on eco-fragile glaciers in Jammu and Kashmir and severely affect ecological balance besides food, energy, and water security in the eco-fragile region, environmentalists warn.
J&K has been facing prolonged dry spells even amid a 40-day harshest winter period locally known as Chillai Kalan. It is after seven years that Kashmir is again experiencing a snowless winter.
“Due to continuous dry spells and rising temperatures, there will be an immediate impact that the glaciers will show very high melting in the coming months. In the absence of snow, the snowmelt, which is normally very significant (55 percent) will show a significant decrease in summer, affecting the agriculture sector in J&K,” noted geoscientist Prof Shakil Romshoo told Greater Kashmir.
Environmentalists state that the dry spell in the peak winter period is an indicator of climate change coupled with El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over Kashmir. The problem has been compounded by rising temperatures and dry spells.
Fast retreating of glaciers due to global warming and pollution has created glacial lakes in various mountain ranges of J&K besides Ladakh. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods can be disastrous for downstream populations due to the sudden outburst of a glacial lake dammed by loose moraine material. The glacial lake outbursts can be catastrophic – destroying downstream infrastructure, resulting in fatalities and affecting the livelihoods of mountain communities.
Romshoo said the melting of glaciers is increasing the size of glacial lakes in J&K and Ladakh.
“But the Glacial Lake Outburst Floods have different triggering mechanisms which vary from location to location. The rising temperatures have its impact and linkages to another sector including Glacial Lake Outburst Floods,” he said.
J&K and Ladakh house some of the largest glaciers in the Hindu Kush region. Kolahoi, the largest glacier of Kashmir’s Jhelum Basin, is retreating rapidly due to a spurt in temperature triggered by global warming and extreme pollution. Thajiwas, Hoksar, Nehnar, Shishram, and glaciers around Harmukh are melting fast.
Scientific studies indicate that Kolahoi, the largest glacier of Kashmir Valley’s Jhelum Basin, is retreating rapidly due to a spurt rise in temperature triggered by global warming and extreme pollution. Environmentalists blame unprecedented increases in temperature, deforestation, increasing human activities, constructions in eco-fragile zones and high levels of pollution caused by the emission of greenhouse gases by vehicles, brick kilns and cement plants for the retreating of glaciers in J&K.
Prof Romshoo, who has been studying glaciers, warns that given the projected climate change across the Kashmir Himalayan region, “glacier mass loss could enhance with serious implications for regional water availability”.
“Rapid recession of glaciers will also hit hydrological regimes and transboundary sharing of waters emanating from the region, particularly during the lean period, when glacier melt dominates the stream flow,” he said.
Elaborating, he said that food, energy, and water security as well as the dependent livelihoods particularly downstream will be significantly impacted by the melting of glaciers.
“It is also projected that the glacier-melt contribution to stream flow in the Indus Basin will further diminish in the future. This will have an impact on the hydrograph, especially during summer and autumn seasons,” Prof Ramshoo said.
J&K ranks 3rd among the Himalayan areas which are vulnerable to climate change, a study has revealed.
On January 9, Srinagar recorded a maximum temperature of 14.2 degrees Celsius, which is 8.1 degrees Celsius above average this winter. The water level in Kashmir’s lifeline, Jhelum is at one its lowest. Banihal area in the Ramban district of Jammu today recorded a maximum temperature of 23.4 degrees Celsius—13.1 degrees Celsius above the normal January temperatures. In comparison, Jammu city recorded 8.6 degrees Celsius, which is 9.3 degrees Celsius below the average normal level.
The Union Territory has been confronted with environmental challenges due to global warming, unplanned urbanisation, deforestation and vandalisation of water bodies, according to the study titled ‘Climate Vulnerability Assessment for the Indian Himalayan Region Using a Common Framework’.
Glaciologists based on studies state that during the last few years, glacier melting in Kashmir and Ladakh region has been highest as compared to the rest of the Himalayas and the Alps.
J&K has been facing erratic weather patterns for the past nearly two decades, resulting in drought-like situations, flash floods and windstorms. Incessant rains and cloudbursts caused devastating floods in Kashmir in 2014. Erratic weather patterns have also taken a toll on agriculture and horticulture sectors.
The glacier recession and the prevailing warming scenario over the Himalayas make communities and infrastructure more vulnerable to cryosphere-related hazards that were previously not experienced in the past.
Dr Irfan Rashid, senior assistant professor of the Department of Geo-informatics, University of Kashmir (KU) said these hazards include GLOF, rock-ice avalanches, glacier detachments and debris flows.
“Snowfall deficit and higher temperatures this winter could increase the incidence of cryosphere-related hazards like permafrost degradation triggered slope failures including debris flows, mudflows, and rock falls. Besides, it will cause early snow melt and glacier degeneration,” he said.
Similar manifestations of cryosphere-related hazards were experienced in Gilgit, Hunza and Himachal Pradesh during 2022 and 2023.
He states that in the northwestern Himalayan regions of J&K and Ladakh, Leh and Kargil districts are more exposed to GLOF risk with 180 proglacial lakes most of which are expanding in area
As per Dr Rashid’s studies, two proglacial lakes upstream of Vishaw in south Kashmir’s Kulgam district are susceptible to GLOFs that might affect Asthal village downstream. Gya village located some 74 km from Leh experienced GLOF in August 2016 affecting built-up and agriculture downstream. Another high-intensity GLOF was experienced in Rumbak in Leh that destroyed three bridges and washed away several kilometres of roads in August 2021.
Dr Rashid said that the number of proglacial lakes is high in Ladakh.
“Downstream areas in Kashmir valley are more vulnerable owing to high population and greater area under infrastructure,” he said.
In the Kashmir Himalaya, below-normal snowfall during the last several winters accompanied by high winter temperatures and summer heat waves contributed significantly to high glacier melting. Kolahoi Glacier has lost almost 23 percent of its area since 1962 and has fragmented into smaller parts.
GLOFs can be triggered by a host of geomorphic and meteorological factors. Earthquakes exacerbate the cryosphere-related hazard cascade processes including glacial lake failures translating into GLOFs and rock-ice avalanches. J&K falls under the high seismic Zones IV and V making it vulnerable to earthquakes. A powerful 7.6 magnitude earthquake rattled J&K on October 8, 2005, causing massive destruction to structures.
Dr Rashid said there are around 5300 glacial lakes, thousands of ice cliffs and permafrost on unstable steep slopes in the Indus Basin of which J&K and Ladakh regions are part of.
“Such cryosphere-related hazard cascades cannot be ruled out as these regions fall in highest earthquake risk zones,” he said.
Although the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change has accepted the Action Plan on Climate Change submitted by the J&K government in 2014, however on the ground not much work has been undertaken over the years.
Experts stress for understanding climate change vulnerabilities which could help in the development of adaptation strategies and ecosystem management for the Himalayan region.
“We need comprehensive studies about the sustainability of winter tourism and changes in the western disturbances responsible for snowfall over the Kashmir region. There is a need to develop associated low-pressure systems as warranted for framing a robust mitigation policy in tune with the Sustainable Development Goals 2030,” Dr Rashid said.