The Line of Control (LoC) is again under a heavy fire in theKeran sector of Kupwara district. At a time when the world is grappling withthe Covid-19 crisis, the Indian and Pakistani troops are fighting each other onthe borders. The people living in the border region are facing extremelymiserable conditions. At a time when we are advised to remain indoors andmaintain social distancing, border dwellers are running from pillar to post fortheir lives. Both India & Pakistan blame each other for violating the 2003ceasefire agreement.
There’s a ceasefire agreement in place between India &Pakistan since December 2003. It’s on 23rd of November 3003 that the PrimeMinister of Pakistan Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali unilaterally announced aceasefire. Prof. Happymon Jacob in his book, Line on Fire (2019) notes thatafter the statement was made by the Pakistan PM, the ceasefire offer wascommunicated via a telephone call between the DGMOs of the two armies. Indiawelcomed the ceasefire offer. Thus, the ceasefire agreement is simply anunwritten verbal commitment for upholding the sanctity of the LoC &International Border/Working Boundary.
From late 2003 till 2008, when India & Pakistan revivedthe composite dialogue process number of ceasefire violations (CFVs) along theLoC have reduced dramatically. But after the November 2008 Mumbai terrorattacks India unilaterally suspended the dialogue process. Since then the peaceprocess couldn’t get any traction. Subsequently, there’s an increase in theCFVs. The year 2019 probably saw the highest number of ceasefire violations inthe last 16 years, amounting to over 3,200.
Prof. Jacob claims that the most prominent reason for CFVsis the operational factors: Defence construction & fence repairing on theLoC, lack of clarity of the LoC leading to land grab, personality traits oflocal commanders, emotional state, command & control issues, & lack ofinstitutional mechanisms. But the political factors, strategic considerationsand infiltration attempts does play a role in the escalation dynamics. A fewdays back five militants and five soldiers were killed in the Keran sector.Defence sources claimed that these militants had infiltrated from across theborder. Since then the sector is witnessing heavy selling from both sides.People are apprehensive about the current mobilisation of troops and artilleryin the region.
Is there any hope for a better future? During the period from 2004-08 these people were able to return to their homes, work on agriculture & live peacefully without the whistling sounds of mortar shells. But things have changed for the worse particularly after the abrogation of Article 370. As already mentioned, data shows the highest number of ceasefire violations in 2019 & the trend continues. Both India & Pakistan have downgraded their diplomatic ties. The people-to-people contacts and trade is virtually at a standstill. So, there’s no hope of a breakthrough anytime soon. While the world is fighting the deadly Coronavirus which has claimed more than one lakh lives and infected 1.8 million people globally, these militaries are fighting each other on the borders. Prime Minister Modi did try to convene a meeting of SAARC leaders on Covid-19 but Pakistan PM Imran Khan gave it a miss. It’s on expected lines since the two leaders didn’t speak to each other since August 5, 2019 when Article 370 was revoked by the centre. But during the global pandemic when Afghan government and Taliban can agree on a truce, Saudi-led coalition could declare a unilateral ceasefire in Yemen, what’s so special about our sub-continent which keeps us fighting till the last breath.
The writer teaches Political Science at Women College Anantnag, Jammu & Kashmir