Thaksin Shinawatra was Prime Minister of Thailand from 2001 till he was ousted in a military coup in September 2006 while he was abroad. He returned to the country last August after spending fifteen years in exile—he had visited Thailand in 2008 but left the country after a short stay. He was arrested immediately on arrival and taken to court where he was sentenced to eight years imprisonment. The Thai King, Maha Vajiralongkorn—Rama X–reduced his sentence to a year. He is now being released on parole and will live, according to the country’s present Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin like a “normal man”. Srettha belongs to the Pheu Thai party (PTP) which is led by Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra. The PTP formed a coalition government after the May 2023 elections.
It is unlikely that Thaksin will not influence Thai politics from behind the curtain. He is quintessentially a political person who has, astonishingly, all through the period of living abroad succeeded in impacting Thai politics. Indeed, he continued to enjoy wide popular support in the country’s less developed areas north-eastern and northern Thailand. The poor in these areas and, some elsewhere too, had expressed their faith in him in the 2001 elections. That had led him to the Prime Minister’s office for a four-year term. In the 2005 elections he returned with a seventy-five percent majority but fell afoul of the former King, Rama IX, and the Palace who have been at the apex of the Bangkok elite which considered Thaksin a parvenu seeking to compete with the venerated Rama IX for the affection of the Thai people. That had led to the 2006 coup.
Guided by Thaksin, his sister Yingluck Shinawatra led the PTP to victory in the 2011 elections. She was in power till 2014 when the Bangkok elite again struck through the courts to oust her from office. Finally in May of that year Thailand once came under the military’s control through a coup. The constitution was suspended and army chief Prayut Chan-o-cha became Prime Minister. The army also undertook to frame a new constitution in which it sought to ensure that it retained the final say in Thai politics to protect the monarchy. They did this by creating a 250 strong nominated senate which would be filled by the army’s and the Bangkok elite’s supporters. Thus, even if a party achieved success in the National Assembly of 500 members it would find it difficult to get its leader become Prime Minister without the army’s concurrence. This was because the Prime Minister is to be elected by the Senate and the National Assembly sitting together.
Over the past decade the younger elements of the Bangkok elite, and other younger people on the margins in the major urban centres, wanted the role of the army to be eliminated from Thai politics. More importantly, they wanted the Thai monarchy to be modernized. Thailand has draconian lese majeste laws which make any disrespect shown to the monarchy a criminal offence. The courts energetically enforced these laws and prescribed long prison sentences. The army, the conservative judiciary and the supporters of the monarchy have shown no willingness to change these laws.
The Thai monarch, especially Rama IX who reigned for seventy years—1946-2016 had carved a unique place in the hearts of his subjects. He was virtually venerated because he was seen as a noble King who led an exemplary personal life and was completely committed to the welfare of his people. He was a constitutional monarch but such was his moral authority that a hint from him was sufficient for contending army generals and political personalities to bend to his will. Thaksin perhaps thought that he could replace the King in the affections of some of the Thai people. He paid a great political price but, as noted earlier, it is to his credit that he was able to maintain his political hold which was demonstrated in elections and sometimes on the streets of Bangkok.
The present Thai King, Rama X, is showing an ability to be an effective monarch. He has demonstrated a capability to influence the Thai political system. But times are changing and the young are pressing for true democracy which means that the monarchy plays only a constitutional role and like any other institutions can be criticized for its actions. In any event they consider the rituals surrounding the Palace to be anachronistic, needing change. These young elements formed a political party called the Way Forward party which succeeded in getting the highest number of seats in last year’s election to the National Assembly. The PTP joined hands with it and their alliance along with some other reformist parties was able to gather more than 350 seats in the National Assembly. However, the army dominated Senate would not accept this Alliance to form the government. Besides, the courts were invoked to charge some Way Forward party leaders under lese majeste and other laws.
Ever the politician, Thaksin, having used the Way Forward party to ensure that the PTP became the second largest party broke ranks with it. Consequently, the PTP joined hands with the army influenced and other conservative parties, paving the way for government formation in August last year. More significantly it also provided the avenue for Thaksin’s return.
Thai social and political system is churning for the Bangkok elite has got fractured with the young unwilling to go the way of their forbears. The coming period will be interesting to watch though tourists—and Thailand is one of the world’s great tourist destinations—would be hardly aware of what is brewing in Thai hearts.